2015-16 Pepperdine Basketball Replay Recap

Fifty-four simulations are in the books, and the Waves fared well in each of the three, going a combined 34-20 (.630). Pepperdine went 10-8 in the WCC regular season that year, and the Waves did better in two of the three sims, and matched the 10-8 record in the other one.

A full comparison of team and individual stats from the simulations can be found here:

The Waves did best in the Action! PC computer simulation, going 13-5. They went 11-7 in the Courtside College Basketball computer game, and 10-8 in the CB2K cards-and-dice contest.

None of the three sims came very close to matching the team scoring totals. The Waves averaged 74.3 points in real life, and averaged 82.9 in APC, 71.7 in CCB and 68.9 in CB2K. The defensive numbers were 73.8 in real life, 78.1 in APC, 70.6 in CB2K and 69.7 in CCB.

Interestingly, although the Action! PC basketball game had a +8.6 scoring margin over real life, all of the key players came within a point of their actual scoring average. Some of the players who were injured in real life, or were at the end of the bench, helped inflate the total.

While Lamond Murray Jr. (17.3 ppg) was the team’s leading scorer in reality, and Stacy Davis (15.9) was second, the sims favored Davis. He led the squad with averages of 19.3 (CB2K) and 16.3 (CCB), while Murray led the APC sim at 17.8.

Interesting outliers from the team stats: A big reason for the APC scoring increase was the fact that the Waves hit almost 50 extra three-pointers … The Waves came closest to the scoring total in the CCB game (71.7 to 74.3), but they got there very differently. Pepperdine shot 49.6% from the field, but was at 45.4% in real life. The Waves made 172 fewer free throws in that simulation … The lowest-scoring sim, CB2K at 68.9, was very close to the actual three-point and free throw totals, but the Waves shot just 43.3% overall.

Where they got it right: The assist team totals were nearly spot on. 260 in real life, 256, 253 and 250 in the sims … The Waves made 77 three-pointers and two of the sims had them at 75 (CCB) and 71 (CB2K).

Lamond Murray Jr.: APC got it close to right — 17.8 ppg (vs. 17.3), 45.2% shooting (to 45.3%), 119 field goals made (to 120) … CCB got his rebounds exactly right (108 total, 6.0 per game).

Stacy Davis: CB2K loved giving the ball to Davis, as he was 3.4 points better than his actual average (19.3/15.9). The other two were very close, 16.3 (CCB) and 15.8 (APC). He made twice as many three-pointers (24/12) and got to the free throw line more often (104-for-136/92-for-114).

Jett Raines: He finished a little lower than his actual stats in all three sims. APC was closest, and he shot 53.1% from the field both in that sim and in real life. Raines’ inability to get to the free throw line in CCB saw him score 3.8 points less than he should have.

Jeremy Major: CB2K and APC both saw him collect 77 assists, and he had 72 in the real season. Somehow he shot 50% or better both overall and from distance in APC, not something that happened in real life, helping him to an extra point per game.

Kameron Edwards: APC basically got it right, with 7.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 43.1% shooting, 28 assists and 13 steals. His real life numbers were 7.0, 4.1, 43.9%, 24, 14.

Amadi Udenyi: CB2K almost got his assist/turnover ratio right, with 85 and 30, compared to 88 and 29 in real life. He had 73 assists in the CCB game but dropped to just 47 in APC. APC also had him shooting 49.2% from the field and 50.0% from three, far better than his real life numbers, though it only led to a modest increase in his scoring average (5.7 to 5.1).

In the Action! PC game, one bonus was that all of the WCC games got simulated. Gonzaga and BYU went into the final game of the season tied atop the league standings, and the Cougars won the WCC title with a 102-91 victory. BYU finished 14-4, while the Waves and Zags tied for second at 13-5. San Francisco and Saint Mary’s tied for fourth at 11-7. Interestingly, Lamond Murray Jr. and Stacy Davis finished eighth and 12th, respectively, in scoring — just as they did in real life that season. I’d love to know how the APC computer managed to take Pacific’s Alec Kobre from a 13.2 average in real life to the league scoring crown at 22.0 ppg, however.