I rolled 162 games of APBA (basic cards-and-dice) over a 110-day period to replay the 1989 San Francisco Giants season. The dice resulted in an even more successful season for the Giants than they posted in real life, as they finished 13 wins better (105-57, .648, vs. 92-70, .568) in my replay.
To sum up, the pitching was a lot better, the hitting was a little worse. The Giants benefited from a big disparity in the quality of starting pitchers over the course of the season, which I’ll explore later on.
One fairly incredible stat: In his real-life MVP season, Kevin Mitchell batted .291 (158-for-543). In my replay, Mitchell batted .291 (158-for-543). And almost his entire stat line was very, very close, except for his 151 RBI that would have tied the Giants’ franchise record. He hit 51 home runs, four more than reality.
Full Replay/Real Life Statistical Comparison
I utilized as-used starting lineups, unless a player was uncarded, in which case I put in an equivalent player. The Giants’ star pitchers and field players did not make any more starts than they did in real life. I would typically use pinch-hitters that actually played in the game as subs. I would look to use relief pitchers that actually pitched in the game, but if the game’s circumstances dictated I do something different, I would change that up.
Here’s everything that happened:
Team Batting
| Batting | AVG | R | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO |
| Replay | .238 | 673 | 230 | 44 | 137 | 647 | 80 | 469 | 1165 |
| Actual | .250 | 699 | 241 | 52 | 141 | 647 | 87 | 508 | 1071 |
So, overall hitting was down .012 from real life, and the extra base hits and walks were down too. Strikeouts were up. Interestingly, the 647 RBI was spot-on. The run difference wasn’t much, 4.31 per game in real life to 4.15 per game in the replay. How did the Giants score nearly as many runs despite not hitting as well? They fared a little better in clutch situations, I think, batting .244 with runners in scoring position, a little above the season average.
Team Pitching
| Pitching | ERA | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO |
| Replay | 2.68 | 25 | 25 | 51 | 1459.3 | 1208 | 486 | 435 | 400 | 854 |
| Actual | 3.30 | 12 | 16 | 47 | 1457.0 | 1320 | 600 | 535 | 471 | 802 |
The Giants’ pitching staff had a pretty remarkable season. They started unbelievably, and although things tilted closer to normal in the second half of the season, the differences at the end were still quite sizable. Having a lot of “A” and “B” pitchers in the APBA basic game went a long way in this season. The difference in batting average was even more pronounced for the opponents than it was for the Giants. SF pitchers held other teams to .222 batting in the replay as opposed to .243 in real life.
Team Fielding
I didn’t include team fielding stats in my PDFs, but I did want to point one thing out. The real-life Giants committed 114 errors. My replay Giants committed 128 errors. So not a huge difference there. But, the distribution of the errors was way, way off. In real life, shortstop Jose Uribe made 18 errors and second baseman Robby Thompson made eight errors, and both received APBA’s highest fielding rating of “9”. But because the basic game favors giving errors to the middle infielders, Uribe had 44 and Thompson had 34 in the replay! I think I’ll definitely start using some of the more advanced fielding charts in the future.
Individual Batting
Here’s a look at some of the basic stat differences from real life vs. replay, but a more comprehensive look can be found in this document. In addition to Kevin Mitchell perfectly matching his batting average, Robby Thompson hit .241 in both, albeit in a different number of at-bats. Only two Giants who regularly played hit better in the sim than in real life, Brett Butler and Candy Maldonado.
| Batters | Replay | Actual |
| Will Clark | .321, 122R, 199H, 25HR, 105RBI | .333, 104R, 196H, 23HR, 111RBI |
| Brett Butler | .294, 99R, 187H, 31RBI, 27SB | .283, 100R, 168H, 36RBI, 31SB |
| Kevin Mitchell | .291, 103R, 158H, 51HR, 151RBI | .291, 100R, 158H, 47HR, 125RBI |
| Ken Oberkfell | .286, 7R, 26H, 0HR, 8RBI | .319, 17R, 37H, 2HR, 15RBI |
| Ed Jurak | .283, 8R, 13H, 0HR, 6RBI | .238, 2R, 10H, 0HR, 1RBI |
| Ernest Riles | .249, 30R, 76H, 5HR, 31RBI | .278, 43R, 84H, 7HR, 40RBI |
| Robby Thompson | .241, 95R, 137H, 15HR, 64 RBI | .241, 91R, 132H, 13HR, 50 RBI |
| Candy Maldonado | .226, 33R, 77H, 4HR, 44RBI | .217, 39R, 75H, 9HR, 41RBI |
| Donell Nixon | .220, 16R. 35H, 0HR, 11RBI | .265, 23R, 44H, 1HR, 15RBI |
| Greg Litton | .204, 11R, 29H, 3HR, 14RBI | .252, 12R, 36H, 4HR, 17RBI |
| Jose Uribe | .203, 29R, 106H, 1HR, 40RBI | .221, 34R, 100H, 1HR, 30RBI |
| Pat Sheridan | .202, 15R, 37H, 4HR, 20RBI | .205, 20R, 33H, 3HR, 14RBI |
| Kirt Manwaring | .197, 16R, 45H, 0HR, 18RBI | .210, 14R, 42H, 0HR, 18RBI |
| Terry Kennedy | .191, 29R, 72H, 7HR, 36RBI | .239, 19R, 85H, 5HR, 34RBI |
| Matt Williams | .174, 31R, 53H, 13HR, 39RBI | .202, 31R, 59H, 18HR, 50RBI |
Individual Pitching
Again, the full comparison can be found in this document. Sorry Mark Davis of the Padres, you’re not winning the Cy Young Award this season. That’ll go to Scott Garrelts thanks to an “A” rating that made him pretty much unstoppable. “B”-rated Don Robinson nearly doubled his win total to join Garrelts as a 20-game winner. The other “B” starter, Rick Reuschel, had a similar win-loss record to real life but picked up a few more no-decisions.
There were 16 starts made by uncarded players. Mike LaCoss (“C”), Atlee Hammaker (“D”) and Kelly Downs (“D”) picked up extra starts because of it. Garrelts, Reuschel and Robinson all made their actual number of starts.
I used the optional pitcher fatigue and pitcher grade advancement rules. Because the starters were often pitching so well, they ended up with longer outings than they did in real life. So overall, the starters have more innings pitched, and the relievers have fewer.
| Pitchers | Replay | Actual |
| Goose Gossage | 2-0, 1.08 ERA, 33.3 IP, 11 SV | 2-1, 2.68 ERA, 43.7 IP, 4 SV |
| Scott Garrelts | 23-5, 1.34 ERA, 234.7 IP | 14-5, 2.28 ERA, 193.3 IP |
| Rick Reuschel | 15-6, 2.16 ERA, 241.7 IP | 17-8, 2.94 ERA, 208.3 IP |
| Jeff Brantley | 4-1, 2.26 ERA, 63.7 IP | 7-1, 4.07 ERA, 97.3 IP |
| Don Robinson | 20-10, 2.39 ERA, 222.3 IP | 12-11, 3.43 ERA, 197.0 IP |
| Craig Lefferts | 6-3, 2.83 ERA, 70.0 IP, 15 SV | 2-4, 2.69 ERA, 107.0 IP, 20 SV |
| Steve Bedrosian | 3-2, 2.87 ERA, 31.3 IP, 22 SV | 1-4, 2.65 ERA, 51.0 IP, 17 SV |
| Bob Knepper | 5-2, 3.02 ERA, 50.7 IP | 3-2, 3.46 ERA, 52.0 IP |
| Mike LaCoss | 13-8, 3.21 ERA, 187.7 IP | 10-10, 3.17 ERA, 150.1 IP |
| Atlee Hammaker | 8-3, 3.26 ERA, 121.3 IP | 6-6, 3.76 ERA, 76.2 IP |
| Kelly Downs | 5-11, 4.77 ERA, 122.7 IP | 4-8, 4.79 ERA, 82.2 IP |
| Randy McCament | 0-4, 4.81 ERA, 39.3 IP | 1-1, 3.93 ERA, 36.2 IP |
Pitching Matchups
Two-thirds of the way through the season I began looking for the reason why the Giants were so outperforming their real-life counterparts. I had a feeling that the starting pitching matchups were tilted in San Francisco’s favor. The Giants were starting “A” or “B” pitchers three out of every four or five games, while the opponents seemed to be starting a lot of “D” pitchers.
So, here’s a chart of the Giants’ record based on the grade of the San Francisco starter vs. the opponent starter. This wasn’t the grade of the pitchers who got the decision, just the starters, because they would have the most impact on the game.
| SF “A” | SF “B” | SF “C” | SF “D” | |
| Opp “A” | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Opp “B” | 7-2 | 14-6 | 5-4 | 3-7 |
| Opp “C” | 6-2 | 12-6 | 4-2 | 6-5 |
| Opp “D” | 10-2 | 18-7 | 7-3 | 10-9 |
What can we take from this chart? The Giants started “A” or “B” pitchers 93 times. The opponents only did so 53 times. The Giants started a “D” pitcher 43 times. The opponents did so 66 times.
So, the Giants regularly began a game with the advantage of having a higher-graded pitcher in the lineup.
Opponents
Who fared the best against the Giants this season? Only three pitchers beat San Francisco three times: Derek Lilliquist (Braves) and David Cone (Mets). Rick Sutcliffe (Cubs) went 2-1 with a 1.14 ERA in three starts. Orel Hershiser (Dodgers) had a 1.32 ERA in five starts but only went 2-2.
Tom Herr (Cardinals) was the top hitter, batting .392 (20-for-51). Dale Murphy (Braves) hit six home runs and Paul O’Neill (Reds) and Howard Johnson (Mets) each had five. Other top averages among those who saw a lot of at-bats were Johnson (.380, 19-for-50), Pedro Guerrero (Cardinals, .362, 17-for-47), O’Neill (.353, 18-for-51), Barry Bonds (Pirates, .350, 14-for-40), and Tim Raines (Expos, .306, 15-for-49).
More Opponents
Here’s a breakdown of how the Giants did against each National League team. What happened against the Mets?
| Replay | Actual | |
| Atlanta Braves | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Chicago Cubs | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Houston Astros | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Montreal Expos | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| New York Mets | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| San Diego Padres | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 10-2 | 7-5 |
Miscellaneous
And, for history’s sake, here’s a few more comparisons and records:
| Replay | Actual | |
| April | 17-7 | 12-12 |
| May | 20-7 | 17-10 |
| June | 22-6 | 18-10 |
| July | 16-10 | 14-12 |
| August | 14-14 | 14-14 |
| September/October | 16-13 | 17-12 |
| Extra Innings | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| One-Run Games | 21-15 | 30-25 |
| 2-game series | 4-0-4 | |
| 3-game series | 26-13 | |
| 4-game series | 2-2-2 | |
| 5-game series | 0-1 |
ROGER SPORTS & GAMES 