After the first 16 test games, it looks like In the Trenches has promise. There were some exciting games played, and I think the general concept may work.
Should I be concerned that only nine of the 16 actual winners were victorious here? Maybe. The sample size may be too small at this point. I’ll see how the next set of games go. Before I get there, changes will be made to the drive charts before week 2 gets play-tested.
One good note — my scoring totals were right on the mark. Games averaged 42.3 points per contest. In the actual week 1, it was 41.0 points per game, and over the course of the 2023 season, it was 43.6 points per game. But, I think I need to work on the drive charts to better reward the offense when it has a big advantage, and to penalize the offense further when it is disadvantaged.
However, exactly how the scoring occurred was a little off. My replay had fewer offensive touchdowns (2.06 per team per game, actual mark for 2023 was 2.25) and more field goals (2.16 per team per game, actual mark for 2023 was 1.67). Somehow I need to change that without messing up the overall scoring.
In the 2023 season, there were 1.6 interceptions and 1.1 fumbles per game. I had just 0.7 interceptions and 0.8 fumbles, so I need to add more turnover opportunities to the drive charts.
Here were my results after replaying week 1 of the 2023 NFL season:
Detroit 31, Kansas City 24: Trailing 7-3, the Lions scored touchdowns on the final possession of the first half and on the first two possessions of the second half to go up 24-14. Jared Goff’s third touchdown pass made it 31-17 in the fourth quarter, but Patrick Mahomes matched him with his third TD to cut it to 31-24. Kansas City got a quick stop and had one last chance, but failed on fourth down at midfield. (actual: Detroit 21-20)
Atlanta 20, Carolina 13: Desmond Ridder threw one touchdown and ran for another to help Atlanta to a 17-3 lead, though Bryce Young came back with a touchdown pass right before halftime to make it 17-10. Both teams traded late field goals, and Carolina was attempting to drive for a game-tying score on its final possession, but Young threw his second interception to end it. (actual: Atlanta 24-10)
Baltimore 24, Houston 13: Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes, the last one coming in the middle of the fourth quarter to extend the Ravens’ lead to 11. (actual: Baltimore 25-9)
Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 15: The Bengals’ Evan McPherson kicked five field goals, the last of which gave Cincinnati a 15-7 lead at the end of the third quarter. But Deshaun Watson engineered three fourth-quarter scoring drives in the comeback win. Two field goals cut it to 15-13, and on the Browns’ final possession, he tossed a 10-yard touchdown, his second to David Bell. (actual: Cleveland 24-3)
Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 21: This was an exciting one. Jacksonville took a 14-0 lead, which included a punt return for a touchdown by Jamal Agnew. Indianapolis scored the next 17 points, taking a 17-14 lead in the fourth quarter on Zack Moss’ second touchdown run. The Jaguars went back on top 21-14 on Trevor Lawrence’s TD pass to Evan Engram … but they left just enough time on the clock for the Colts to post a game-winning drive, as Anthony Richardson found Alec Pierce in the end zone on the game’s final possession. (actual: Jacksonville 31-21)
Minnesota 17, Tampa Bay 14: The Vikings scored the first 10 points and led 10-3 at the break. Kirk Cousins’ TD pass to Jordan Addison made it 17-6 late in the third quarter. The Buccaneers got a late TD pass from Baker Mayfield and made the two-point conversion to pull within three, but the Vikings ran out the clock. (actual: Tampa Bay 20-17)
New Orleans 26, Tennessee 9: Tennessee pulled within one point at 7-6 after two Nick Folk field goals, but the Saints scored the next 16 points, as Derek Carr threw his second touchdown pass to Jimmy Graham and Blake Grupe kicked two of his four field goals. The Titans were held to three field goals. (actual: New Orleans 16-15)
San Francisco 19, Pittsburgh 13: Brock Purdy tossed two touchdown passes to Deebo Samuel to help give the 49ers a 13-10 lead at halftime. The second half only saw three field goals, two by San Francisco’s Jake Moody. (actual: San Francisco 30-7)
Arizona 17, Washington 12: Commander kicker Joey Slye’s fourth field goal put Washington up 12-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Cardinals drove down the field and got the go-ahead score on a 6-yard run by Emari Demercado. Washington failed on a fourth-down play at midfield on its final possesion. (actual: Washington 20-16)
Green Bay 26, Chicago 17: Jordan Love ran for two touchdowns and Anders Carlson kicked four field goals to help the Packers take leads of 23-0 at halftime and 26-0 after three quarters. The Bears turned the ball over four times in the first three quarters, but averted the shutout and put 17 points on the board in the fourth quarter. (actual: Green Bay 38-20)
Denver 26, Las Vegas 13: The Raiders tied the game at 13 early in the third quarter, but Russell Wilson threw his second touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton to put the Broncos back in front, and Wil Lutz iced it with his third and fourth field goals of the game in the fourth quarter. (actual: Las Vegas 17-16)
LA Chargers 40, Miami 30: The highest-scoring game of the first round thus far matched the point total of the real game, although the winner was different. Justin Herbert threw four first-half touchdown passes to help the Chargers take 31-9 lead at the break. The Dolphins turned it on in the second half, but the deficit was too great. (actual: Miami 36-34)
Philadelphia 27, New England 16: Jalen Hurts ran for two scores as the Eagles took a 27-3 halftime lead. The Patriots outscored the Eagles 13-0 in the second half, but it wasn’t enough. (actual: Philadelphia 25-20)
Seattle 30, LA Rams 27: The Rams led 17-10 at halftime, but Seattle scored the next 17 points to go up 27-17 in the fourth quarter. The Rams’ Kyren Williams ran for his second touchdown to make it 27-24, but Seattle kicked a field goal to make it 30-24. LA drove down the field, but was limited to a field goal on what turned out to be its last possession. Seattle was able to run out the clock from there. Two missed field goals cost the Rams. (actual: LA Rams 30-13)
Dallas 31, NY Giants 7: Dak Prescott passed for two touchdowns and Tony Pollard ran for two in an easy victory. It might’ve ended up as a shutout like the actual game, but the Giants had a very short field after an excellent third-quarter kickoff return and converted a touchdown. (actual: Dallas 40-0)
Buffalo 41, NY Jets 13: The Bills scored touchdowns on their first five possessions as Josh Allen threw for three scores and ran for one, and it was 35-10 at halftime. There were just a few field goals in the second half. (actual NY Jets 22-16)
ROGER SPORTS & GAMES 