My second try at In the Trenches Football got off to an interesting start during the week one replay of the 2024 NFL season. There were a lot of compelling games. The stats were okay.
Scoring: Teams averaged 24.4 points per game, just a bit too high. The actual week 1 scoring average (which was the same as the full season average) was 22.9.
Turnovers: Teams averaged 0.47 interceptions and 0.47 fumbles, too low compared to the season averages of 0.7 and 0.5, respectively.
Results vs. Team Ratings: Overall, the favorites (based on my team ratings) went 8-6. Small favorites went 3-2. Medium favorites went 2-2. Large favorites went 3-2. Hmmmm. We’ll have to see how this plays out with more games.
Results vs. Actual Results: The game produced the same winner as the actual result in only seven of the 16 games. I’m not so concerned about that discrepancy.
I’m not going to mess with any of the ratings or charts until I’ve played the week 2 games. Maybe the results and stats will normalize with more data.
In the Trenches Football 2024 Replay Home Page
Cleveland 34, Dallas 21: Deshaun Watson threw four touchdown passes and the Browns scored 20 straight points to break a 14-14 tie. (actual: Dallas 33-17)
Tampa Bay 30, Washington 28: The Redskins led 28-20 heading into the final quarter but the Buccaneers got a field goal, then ended the game with a winning touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans. (actual: Tampa Bay 37-20)
Seattle 26, Denver 17: Geno Smith threw touchdown passes on the Seahawks’ final possession of the first half and the first possession of the second half to make it 26-14, and they held on from there. (actual: Seattle 26-20)
Las Vegas 32, Los Angeles Chargers 25: The Chargers went ahead 25-24 in the fourth quarter on Justin Herbert’s third touchdown pass, but the Raiders came right back and scored on Gardner Minshew’s throw to Jakobi Meyers. The Chargers failed on a fourth-down try on their final possession. (actual: Los Angeles 22-10)
Miami 19, Jacksonville 13 (OT): Miami led 10-3 entering the fourth quarter. After a couple of field goals, Jacksonville sent it to overtime by scoring on Tank Bigsby’s 10-yard run on the final possession of regulation. On the fourth possession of OT, Tua Tagovailoa threw a 9-yard TD pass to Jonnu Smith. (actual: Miami 20-17)
Indianapolis 27, Houston 26: Another game came down to the final play. Houston went up 23-31 at the end of the third quarter on Joe Mixon’s second touchdown run. The teams traded field goals and Houston led 26-24 as the Colts began their final drive. Matt Gay’s 29-yard field goal as time expired gave Indianapolis the win. (actual: Houston 29-27)
Minnesota 27, New York Giants 17: The Vikings returned a punt for a touchdown and Sam Darnold threw two touchdown passes, one in the fourth quarter to Jordan Addison that made it 24-14. (actual: Minnesota 28-6)
Arizona 22, Buffalo 10: The Bills were +3 in turnovers in the first half but couldn’t capitalize and only led 10-3 at the break. It was all Falcons in the second half, including a 60-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr., and four of Chad Ryland’s five field goals. (actual: Buffalo 34-28)
Atlanta 37, Pittsburgh 7: The Falcons scored touchdowns on their first four possessions. Kirk Cousins threw for four touchdowns. It was 37-0 before the Steelers scored late. (actual: Pittsburgh 18-10)
Cincinnati 24, New England 3: Joe Burrow threw for three touchdowns and the Bengal defense forced two turnovers. (actual: New England 16-10)
New Orleans 20, Carolina 14: The Saints took a 13-0 lead in the third quarter. Carolina scored a pair of second-half touchdowns but New Orleans immediately came back with a touchdown of their own. (actual: New Orleans 47-10)
Tennessee 37, Chicago 34: The Titans scored on all five of their first-half possessions to take a 27-9 lead at the break. The Bears closed to within three points at 30-27 in the fourth quarter. The Titans scored a touchdown, but the Bears did too. Chicago got a stop on defense to earn one last possession, but failed on fourth down in midfield. (actual: Chicago 24-17)
Green Bay 43, Philadelphia 42: The Packers scored the first 10 points and maintained a lead until the fourth quarter, when it was 34-28. There were four lead changes from that point on. The Packers went back in front late on Jordan Love’s TD pass to Jayden Reed. The Eagles’ final possession ended with a lost fumble. (actual: Philadelphia 34-29)
Baltimore 21, Kansas City 17: The Chiefs led 10-0 at halftime. Lamar Jackson threw three second-half touchdown passes. His second TD pass to Rashod Bateman came on the Ravens’ final possession to give them the win. (actual: Kansas City 27-20)
Detroit 35, Los Angeles Rams 24: The Rams went up 24-14 after opening the second half with a field goal. The Lions scored touchdowns on their final three possessions, two on runs by Jahmyr GIbbs and the last on a Jared Goff-to-Jameson Williams pass. (actual: Detroit 26-20)
San Francisco 27, New York Jets 14: The Jets led 14-13 at halftime but Brock Purdy used his feet, not his arm, to score two second-half touchdowns. (actual: San Francisco 32-19)
ROGER SPORTS & GAMES 